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How to keep new members through their first year.

Most people who leave a church leave in their first year, and they leave quietly. Here is what the research says, and what a team can do in each season of that year.

SVSean Verchick, Founder of ShepUpdated October 20266 minute read

The short version

  1. Months 1 to 2Follow up with a plan, and give them a shepherd on day one.
  2. Months 3 to 6Help them make friends. A group does most of this work.
  3. Months 6 to 12Give them a place to serve, and sit down with them at six months.
  4. All yearNotice when they go quiet, and celebrate what is good.

The first year decides

82%

Of the people who leave a church, 82% leave in their first year.

7

New people who stay make about seven friends in their first six months. Those who leave make fewer than two.

Source: Gary McIntosh and Charles Arn, What Every Pastor Should Know.

Nobody announces that they are leaving. They miss two Sundays, then four, and by the time someone asks about them they have been gone since spring.

New people drift for three plain reasons:

  • No friends. They came for months and never got past hello.
  • No place. Nobody asked them to help with anything.
  • Nobody noticed. They missed a month and no one called.

Each season of the first year answers one of those.

The first year, season by season

  1. Months 1 to 2

    Follow up, with one name beside theirs.

    The first weeks are about one person reaching out and keeping at it. Give every guest a shepherd on their first Sunday. The week by week version is in the visitor follow up plan.
    In Shep

    Their shepherd is set on day one, and your dashboard lists everyone who is new to the family, so nobody new is out of sight.

    ShepherdSarah Mitchell
    SMSarah Mitchell added a note on James Carter
    Called James. Settling in well, kids start school Monday.
  2. Months 3 to 6

    Friends.

    Seven friends in six months does not happen in a lobby. It happens in a group, around a table, over a few months. Get them into one group with a leader who invited them. And when you get coffee with them, never go alone. Bring a third person they have something in common with, so every coffee is one more friend.
    In Shep

    When a note mentions another person, Shep links the two as a connection, so you can see who they know. Joining a group is a milestone on their story.

    RCRyan Cole added a note on James Carter
    Dinner with the Carters and @Dana Brooks. Kids got on well. James offered to host next month.
    MilestoneJoined a small group
    Connections4 people
  3. Months 6 to 12

    A place to serve, and a conversation at six months.

    People stay where they are needed, so ask them onto a team. Then, around six months, their shepherd sits down with them for a real conversation: how is it going, what has been hard, what would they like to be part of next.
    In Shep

    Log a milestone like a baptism and Shep can add check in tasks at three and six months for their shepherd. Put the 1 on 1 on the calendar, and the notes from it stay private.

    6 month check in with James
    Ryan Cole, due in March
    MilestoneJoined a serving team
  4. All year

    Notice the quiet, and celebrate the good.

    The warning sign is silence. Once a week, look at who nobody has talked with lately and pick up the phone. And do not only call when something is wrong. Remember the birthday, the new job, the first anniversary of a baptism. Celebrate the growth, not just the crisis.
    In Shep

    Each person shows how long it has been since anyone on your team talked with them. Birthdays and anniversaries for the next 30 days are on your dashboard.

    Last touch6 weeks ago
    BirthdayIn 6 days
    AnniversaryBaptized one year ago on Sunday

How to know it is working

Attendance tells you who came. It does not tell you who is known. Ask three questions about your team, for every person in their first year.

  • Does someone know them?
  • Has anyone talked with them lately?
  • Is their story written down?

If the answer is no, that is ours to fix, not theirs.

Run this in Shep

Shep keeps each person's story in one place: the notes, the milestones, the friends they have made, and the shepherd who walks with them. Your team sees who is new, who has gone quiet, and what there is to celebrate this week.

Shep does not score your people. It scores your team on those three questions.

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Questions

Why do new members leave a church?
Most often because they did not make friends. Gary McIntosh and Charles Arn found that new people who stay make about seven friends in their first six months, and those who leave make fewer than two.
When do most people leave a church?
In their first year. Of the people who leave a church, 82% leave in their first year.
What does closing the back door of the church mean?
It is shorthand for keeping the people who have already come. A church closes the back door by helping new people make friends, find a place to serve, and be known by someone, so nobody drifts out unnoticed.
How often should we check in with a new member?
A personal touch every week or two in the first two months, a real conversation at three months and at six months, and someone who notices any time they go quiet.

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